PHOTO | NEWORLEANSSAINTS.COM

This weekend’s Super Bowl has a pervasive ring of justice to it. The two best teams, led by the two best quarterbacks; no Bret Favre after maneuvering his way out of New York and into Minnesota, bypassing training camp. No inconsistent Tony Romo and Jerry Jones’ multi-billion dollar stadium. No scowling Bill Belichick coldly running up the score with his Patriots. No Jets, Jaguars or Eagles. No pretenders.

Just two great teams. One the model of football excellence, the other trying to desperately wipe away decades of frustration and bring a broken city its first major pro sports championship. The game may be a masterful game of chess between two great quarterbacks and their coaches, or an offensive shootout in which the result is decided midway through the third quarter. Either way, Super Bowl XLIV in Miami will provide the payoff this season teased us with.

The Indianapolis Colts have experience and pure excellence in the form of quarterback Peyton Manning on their side.

The New Orleans Saints have a loving fan base; perhaps the second best quarterback in the game (Drew Brees) and the glow of an underdog. Let’s face it; it’s hard to root against New Orleans after all that city has been through.

Much was made of the regular season storylines of these two teams. Both started 13-0 before losing out on the quest for the perfect year. The Saints stumbled against an inconsistent Dallas team and ended up losing the last three games of the regular season.

The Colts sat most of their starters in week 17, declaring playoff preparation more important than the perfect season. Sports writers and broadcasters screamed doom and gloom for Indy; they’d lost their momentum and in the process, given other teams confidence enough to beat them in the playoffs.

Too bad confidence doesn’t equal success. The Colts looked as sharp as ever when they handled the New York Jets.

The Saints’ win over the Vikings was exciting and error filled. Needing overtime and a late errant pass by Bret Favre to make it to Miami, New Orleans will have to play better against Peyton Manning and the Colts.

A closer look at some of the stats and storylines provides some indication as to which team should hoist the Lombardi trophy next Sunday night.

Offense

New Orleans was slightly better on the road (7-1) versus home (6-2) and ended this regular season first in overall offense and fourth in passing and sixth in rushing. In the playoffs, they seem a little more mortal. In total yards, they drop from first in the regular season to fifth in the playoffs. Indy jumped from ninth in the season to fourth in the post season.

Indianapolis finished the season 14-2, 7-1 at home and on the road. The Colts passing offense was ranked number two this regular season and their sometimes almost non-existent rushing game was ranked eighth. They perform with their backs to the wall, besting the Saints’ third and fourth down conversion percentage by about five points in the regular season. In the playoffs, the numbers tighten a bit.

X Factors

The Saints’ Reggie Bush is currently 11th in rushing for this year’s playoffs. Against the Vikings, he was merely an afterthought. New Orleans needs him. Tight end Jeremy Shockey will be playing in his first Super Bowl, having missed out with the New York Giants in 2007 because of an injury. The fiery Shockey was ineffective against Minnesota in the NFC title game, saying his bad right knee had him basically playing on one leg. If anyone can grit through the pain, it’s Shockey.

Colts wide receiver Pierre Garcon ranked second in the NFL in receiver yards this season and took advantage of New York’s focus on teammate Dallas Clark to rack up 151 yards in the AFC title game. His speed and hustle could be a deciding factor.

Quarterbacks

Drew Brees’ 109.6 quarterback rating (third overall) and steady leadership is the main reason why the Saints are such a juggernaut. At 6-feet, Brees is small for a QB, but his stature hasn’t kept him from success; he is the all time franchise record holder in several single game and single season passing records, including 5,069 yards in one season.

Brees is known as lower key and less intense than his Colts counterpart. He seems to fit the city of New Orleans; he’s an undersized guy who works hard and seems to get it done out of sheer determination.

Four-time NFL Most Valuable Player, Peyton Manning, had another spectacular season, further cementing the argument for his consideration as one of the greatest players of all time. With a QB rating of 104.6 (fourth overall) and unmatched instincts and knowledge of the game, Manning is as close to a one-man team as a football player gets. Always seeming to be the smartest guy on the field and nearly unshakable in the face of pressure.

PHOTO | COLTS.COM

X Factors

Nearly completely destroyed, the city of New Orleans is still fragile, slowly rebuilding after Hurricane Katrina in 2005. If Brees leads the Saints to a Super Bowl victory, he may go down as one of the Big Easy’s greatest heroes. The weight of an entire city may be just a bit too much.

Manning was born in New Orleans and his father, Archie holds many of the Saints franchise quarterback records Brees has yet to claim. It’s doubtful Manning has any conflicting emotions about playing his hometown team in the Super Bowl. He’d be just as competitive going to the New York Giants, his younger brother Eli’s team.

Whatever Drew Brees can do, Peyton Manning can do better. Brees may have big game jitters; Manning definitely won’t.

Defense

Ranking sixteenth in defense doesn’t seem to give the Saints much chance at stopping the Colts’ passing game. Add to this the fact Indy ranked second in fewest quarterback sacks this season, and Saints’ defensive coordinator Gregg Williams’ promise to give Manning some memorable shots doesn’t seem that likely. Manning has a high-speed clock in his head, allowing him to get rid of the football quickly and avoid big hits.

The Colts had the second best defense and proved it many times this season; shutting down teams like the Patriots on fourth down and consistently tightening the screws against their opponents in the later quarters.

ESPN.com has reported defensive end Dwight Freeney’s ankle injury, originally thought to be just a sprain is actually a torn ligament. Publicly the team says it expects Freeney to play. If he does, he won’t be effective.

X Factors

The referees will probably be watching New Orleans a little closer than last time, given the NFL’s admittance that defensive end Bobby McCray should have received more penalty calls for his late hits on Bret Favre last time. This could be a high scoring game.

Head Coaches

Sean Payton came to New Orleans the same year as Drew Brees; one could argue he is just as integral to their success. A former quarterback coach in Philadelphia, Payton knows how difficult it is to go toe to toe with Manning. Brees will be as prepared as possible. The Saints’ ugly win against the Vikings was worrisome, though. If Favre hadn’t thrown that bonehead interception, the city of New Orleans would be talking about what could have been right now.

Jim Caldwell took over following Tony Dungy’s retirement, and kept most of his system in place. This resulted in Caldwell’s Colts equaling Dungy’s Colts for best regular season record of 14-2. Not bad for a rookie head coach. His decision to sit Manning and most of his starters in a winnable game against the Jets was a bit of a head scratcher. He’s more likely to have big game jitters than his quarterback.

X Factors

Caldwell has a winning blueprint from the Dungy days. Payton may be able to inspire his players by convincing them how badly the city of New Orleans needs this win; needs something, anything to celebrate.

Final Analysis

There are so many reasons to cheer for the Saints – great quarterback, sad history, great city trying to comeback. But they’re not playing sentiment. They’re playing Peyton Manning and the Colts, who are like UFC middleweight champion Anderson Silva; taking a few rounds to figure his opponent out, then system-atically dismantling them.

The Colts have done that all year, starting slow before taking out the other team in the third and fourth quarters. Sunday should follow that pattern, with a 34-17 Colts win, adding a third Vince Lombardi trophy to the Manning family trophy case.